Vaporware

 There are a number of BEV/alternate fuel start-ups out there - companies like Rivian, Lucid, Lordstown Motors, Nio - all trying to become the next Tesla. Those 3 all seem poised to actually manufacture a mostly-in-house BEV sometime in the next year to 18 months. There are others - like Nikola and Faraday Future - that seem destined to be the next Theranos or Dale. 

Nikola in particular seems ripe to be a flame-out. They purport to be developing a line of hydrogen fuel cell powered and battery-powered vehicles, led by a heavy semi truck, the NikolaOne and have made dramatic promises based on a series of (apparently) non-running prototypes (or 'pushers', meaning they have to be pushed around). For Nikola, which recently somehow inked a development deal with GM, it all seems to be coming apart at the seams, as a recent report by Hindenburg Research (an admitted short seller on the stock) regarding a series of alleged lies by Nikola CEO Trevor Milton. Among the allegations was that the main prototype of the NikolaOne truck - advertised by Milton as a working prototype - was filmed implying it was a running prototype, when it fact it was a 'pusher' that was actually filmed rolling down a hill with after having been towed to the top. Hindenburg also alleged that the power inverter in their vehicles is not developed in-house, as claimed by Milton, but in fact purchased from a third party vendor and with the name disguised by masking tape! The Nikola response, which seems to have been positively received by the stock market, doesn't actually answer any of these claims directly but is a masterful use of the English language to talk around these points!

I tend to take ALL claims by disclosed short sellers with a shaker of salt but it seems they have raised some valid issues here. Perhaps they bare trying to make up for losing their shirts shorting Tesla but their report can't be dismissed out of hand. Elon Musk has made a lot of outrageous claims for sure, but he has built a new car company that has produced over a million electric vehicles, sent men to the ISS with a start-up company, is developing a new space-based broadband provider and drilling tunnels to bypass traffic-choked cities in several locations...

At any rate, I really want ALL of these BEV / alternate fuel start-ups to succeed. While they may compete with each other, the larger opportunity is the ICE market, especially as BEV ranges increase and charging becomes more widely available and faster. Battery technology will continue to improve and recycling of used batteries will continue to expand, further reducing the carbon footprint of BEVs. 

Late breaking - as I was getting ready to publish this, I see that Trevor Milton, the CEO of Nikola, has resigned. It will be interesting to see what happens to the GM deal going forward as well as Nikola in general.