VW Announces ID.4 BEV, Available in 2021

 On September 22, VW officially announced their newest battery-electric vehicle, the ID.4, intended to dramatically expand the VW group's range of BEV's, currently consisting of the Audi E-Tron, Porsche Taycan and the VW ID.3 (Europe-only). They have slowly but surely been releasing pictures of the car and now we can finally see the entire thing.

In lieu of retyping an entire article, let me simply link you to a good one from The Verge - https://www.theverge.com/2020/9/23/21444141/volkswagen-vw-id4-electric-suv-price-range-specs - and give you my thoughts on the car. You can also check out the VW.com ID.4 page here - https://www.vw.com/models/id4/section/colors/

The exterior styling, frankly, is disappointing to me. I can easily envisage an ICE drivetrain underneath the bland exterior. I prefer an electric vehicle that doesn't look like an ICE car - they stand out because of their drivetrain and should stand out with their styling as well, especially given the freedom designers should have without a bulky powertrain taking up space down the center of the car. The ID.4 is very much in the 'compact generic CUV/SUV' mold of the RAV4, Escape, CR-V, Forester, etc. (Only the Mazda CX-5 really stands out among this group of ICE vehicles). Maybe this is part of VW's strategy to sell hundreds of thousands of ID.4's over the next couple of years, but it seems too safe a play to me.

The interior, on the other hand, is very nice. I am a big fan of the uncluttered look of the Tesla Model 3 and Y, but do acknowledge that it might be a big adjustment for a lot of folks. Having a small instrument binnacle directly in front of the driver provides a little 'normalcy' that might make for an easier transition to a BEV. I do think, however, that the cowl is higher than necessary, again, going back to the conservative exterior look. The seats appear to be cloth but if they do offer leather, that is something you can't get in a Model Y. I also like the relative lack of buttons - essentially none on the dash panel - but the steering wheel is too cluttered - again, ICE-like.

I have to say, however, that the 'Play' and 'Pause' markings on the accelerator and brake pedals is really stupid - and shouldn't it be 'Stop', not 'Pause' on the brake?! I also dislike the little 'blister' that sticks out from the right side of the driver's screen, which appears to hold the shift functions. My OCD doesn't appreciate the unbalanced look (I didn't like the asymmetrical doors on the AMC Pacer either!).

And then there is the range of the early-release models - 250 miles (pre-EPA rating). In real-world terms, this would be more like 225-230 miles, in all likelihood. Higher-level models that will be available later will apparently have ratings above 300 miles, but I think VW should have eliminated range-anxiety earlier. And this is an RWD model, so if they add AWD as an option, the range will be lower with the same size battery pack.

As far as charging, the ID.4 obviously won't be using the Tesla Supercharger network, which is a weak point for any BEV besides Tesla. There are plenty of Level 2 charging options out there, but they tend to be less consistent in terms of availability (i.e., working) and you generally don't know if they ARE working until you get to a location (although some companies are now making that info available through their apps). And we don't know at this point if stations are integrated into the ID.4 navigation software or whether you need to use an app like PlugShare to find one.

Price-wise, the ID.4 versions available next year will start at just under $40,000 but with federal and state rebates, could be as low as $27,500 here in New Jersey ($7500 Fed and $5000 NJ rebates applied). Tesla no longer qualifies for the Federal rebate, and in NJ, their least expensive Model 3 (which is a sedan) would still be over $30,000 with the $5,000 NJ rebate. Of course, these rebates are all after-purchase, and could take several months to arrive - so you do pay full-price up front. And for the ID.4, this doesn't include any dealer mark-up (read: pure profit) that may occur.

Overall, I think this will be a success - assuming they don't have the software issues that plagued the early ID.3 vehicles - especially once the Tennessee factory opens in 2022 and starts producing for the American market. The size is good, the styling is conservative enough that it won't scare away people unsure about switching to an EV and I think in VW's major markets today, the charging network will be large enough to not scare people away from a major change in their vehicle fueling habits. And the pricing is low enough that people could buy this as their second, around-town car without having to worry about taking it on a long trip. They can have their Tiguan for that.

Vaporware

 There are a number of BEV/alternate fuel start-ups out there - companies like Rivian, Lucid, Lordstown Motors, Nio - all trying to become the next Tesla. Those 3 all seem poised to actually manufacture a mostly-in-house BEV sometime in the next year to 18 months. There are others - like Nikola and Faraday Future - that seem destined to be the next Theranos or Dale. 

Nikola in particular seems ripe to be a flame-out. They purport to be developing a line of hydrogen fuel cell powered and battery-powered vehicles, led by a heavy semi truck, the NikolaOne and have made dramatic promises based on a series of (apparently) non-running prototypes (or 'pushers', meaning they have to be pushed around). For Nikola, which recently somehow inked a development deal with GM, it all seems to be coming apart at the seams, as a recent report by Hindenburg Research (an admitted short seller on the stock) regarding a series of alleged lies by Nikola CEO Trevor Milton. Among the allegations was that the main prototype of the NikolaOne truck - advertised by Milton as a working prototype - was filmed implying it was a running prototype, when it fact it was a 'pusher' that was actually filmed rolling down a hill with after having been towed to the top. Hindenburg also alleged that the power inverter in their vehicles is not developed in-house, as claimed by Milton, but in fact purchased from a third party vendor and with the name disguised by masking tape! The Nikola response, which seems to have been positively received by the stock market, doesn't actually answer any of these claims directly but is a masterful use of the English language to talk around these points!

I tend to take ALL claims by disclosed short sellers with a shaker of salt but it seems they have raised some valid issues here. Perhaps they bare trying to make up for losing their shirts shorting Tesla but their report can't be dismissed out of hand. Elon Musk has made a lot of outrageous claims for sure, but he has built a new car company that has produced over a million electric vehicles, sent men to the ISS with a start-up company, is developing a new space-based broadband provider and drilling tunnels to bypass traffic-choked cities in several locations...

At any rate, I really want ALL of these BEV / alternate fuel start-ups to succeed. While they may compete with each other, the larger opportunity is the ICE market, especially as BEV ranges increase and charging becomes more widely available and faster. Battery technology will continue to improve and recycling of used batteries will continue to expand, further reducing the carbon footprint of BEVs. 

Late breaking - as I was getting ready to publish this, I see that Trevor Milton, the CEO of Nikola, has resigned. It will be interesting to see what happens to the GM deal going forward as well as Nikola in general.